The vote to renew authorities of the Assembly showed that the opposition majority, led by correístas and social Christians, has more than 92 votes for impeachment. The possibility of a cross death reappears.
The authorities of the Assembly for 2023-2025, after their election on May 14, 2023.
The session on May 14 to choose the authorities of the Assembly for the period 2023-2025 made it clear that the legislative opposition can, without major obstacles, reach the removal of President Guillermo Lasso.
The seven votes of the day showed the strength of the opposition majority.
The alliance between the correísta Union for Hope (UNES) and the Christian Social Party (PSC) managed to consolidate the support of the most radical factions of Pachakutik and the Democratic Left (ID).
That coalition of the four forces obtained between 94 and 100 votes in all the motions presented. This means that the opposition majority would have the qualified majority, necessary to remove President Guillermo Lasso after the impeachment trial.
Faced with this reality, the possibility of the Executive calling for a cross death reappears. The dissolution of the Assembly would allow the President to govern for a few months alone and with decrees, while new elections are called.
The opposition consolidates
The vote for the renewal of the authorities of the Assembly this 2023 was even higher than what the opposition majority achieved a year ago, when they removed Guadalupe Llori from the presidency of the Assembly and replaced with Virgilio Saquicela.
On that occasion, the legislative majority achieved 81 votes. Now, a year later, he got more than 94 supports in the seven votes:
PRIMICIAS analyzed the seven ballots and found that only 83 assembly members of the legislative majority voted in favor in the seven ballots. This would mean that, despite the good numbers, the 92 votes are not guaranteed.
These numbers show, therefore, that in each vote there was support that depended on the name that had been moved. These differences are centered above all on Pachakutik and the independents.
For example, Salvador Quishpe (Pachakutik) did not appear for the vote for Saquicela and Marcela Holguín, abstained on the motions for Esteban Torres and Viviana Veloz, and voted against Ángel Maita, Yeseña Guamaní and Jorge Abedrabbo.
Other Pachakutik assembly members did support some of those names, depending on their criteria.
In the same correísmo there was division. Pierina Correa supported everything except Jorge Abedrabbo, and Patricia Mendoza voted against Marcela Holguín.
Among the independents, the three separated from the PSC, Javier Ortiz, Elina Narváez and Karen Noblecilla, voted in favor of Esteban Torres although they no longer belong to that bench.
The additions of the opposition majority
According to the votes for this renewal of the authorities of the Assembly, the opposition majority secured the support of eight independents, who supported them in the seven votes:
- Augusto Guaman.
- Virgilio Saquicela.
- Eckenner Recalde.
- Diego Esparza.
- Daniel Noboa Azin.
- Daysi Yuquilema.
- Mireya Pazmino (former Pachakutik).
- Bruno Segovia.
In addition to at least 10 Pachakutik assembly members and 10 from the Democratic Left. This would indicate that, as a whole, the support would be around 90 votes.
The ‘ghost’ of the cross death
In this scenario, the cross-death option reappears. With these numbers, it would seem that the die is cast for the dismissal of President Guillermo Lasso, so his only option to stay in power would be to dissolve the Assembly .
But there are still a few days left to continue watching the political scene. The Plenary is convened for Tuesday, May 16 at 10:00 a.m. for the start of the impeachment process. The process could take up to two days.
According to the re-elected president, Virgilio Saquicela, the vote would take place within 72 hours. That is, it would be for the next weekend.
To apply cross death, the President could use two of the three grounds established by the Constitution:
- If it repeatedly and unjustifiably obstructs the execution of the National Development Plan.
- Due to serious political crisis and internal commotion.
Neither of these two causes require a constitutional opinion.
In this scenario, the National Electoral Council would have a maximum period of seven days to call legislative and presidential elections for the rest of the current period. Voting must be carried out “within a period of less than 90 days”.
During those three months and until the installation of the new National Assembly, President Lasso, after a favorable ruling from the Constitutional Court, will be able to govern through decree-laws in economic matters.
In that case, the President could seek re-election for the remainder of the term and would be replaced only if he is defeated at the polls.
For Saquicela, the cause of obstruction of the National Development Plan would not fit, especially if the failed Investment Law, blocked by the Assembly 15 months ago, is used as support.
