La Niña would last until April 2023, with negative economic effects in sectors such as fishing and agriculture.
Tuna unloading at the Manta Port Terminal, June 2021.
The climate phenomenon La Niña 2020-2023 has been the longest in the last 66 years, with a duration of 34 months and if it reaches April, as expected, it will be the longest in the last 120 years, according to a report from the National Chamber of Fisheries.
La Niña is an atmospheric phenomenon that is expressed in a drop in the temperature of the sea surface. It usually lasts from nine months to three years.
According to estimates by the fishing sector, the La Niña phenomenon will last until the end of March or the beginning of April 2023. Then a transition period of about three months will begin, until the El Niño phenomenon begins (warm phase).
Impact on fishing
La Niña has left important economic effects on the Ecuadorian fishing sector, at least since the end of 2021, with a decrease in exports and an increase in production costs.
When the temperature drops between 1°C and 2°C, the tuna migrates because it is a fish from tropical waters, explains the president of the National Chamber of Fisheries, Bruno Leone.
That is why the so-called southern season for tuna fishing, when the Ecuadorian tuna vessels move to Peruvian waters, was disappointing.
The southern season from December 2021 to February 2022, and from December 2022 to February 2023, were especially bad for Ecuadorian tuna vessels, according to Leone.
In 2022, there was an 11% drop in exports by volume of the fishing sector. The reduction in the case of tuna fishing and other fish was 21.8% last year, according to the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE).
In the case of tuna, Leone adds that as the fish move away in search of warmer waters, boats must spend more days at sea.
The trips, which previously lasted from 30 to 45 days, have been extended to 60 and up to 70 days, which has increased production costs by 15% due to greater spending on fuel, lubricants and food for the crews.
Minor fishing, with which fishmeal is produced, is one of the most affected, Leone notes. This sector supplies the shrimp feed industry.
The balanced market has even imported fishmeal from Peru to meet its needs, details Leone.
The president of the National Chamber of Fisheries hopes that the temperature of the sea surface will begin to normalize in the coming months.
Bananas, with losses
La Niña has also had an impact on agricultural production in Ecuador, because among its effects are droughts on the coast.
In the case of bananas, close to 80% of the drop in export volume in 2022 was due to the impact of La Niña, explains Richard Salazar, executive director of the Banana Marketing and Export Association (Acorbanec).
Last year banana and plantain exports fell 5.8% in volume and also 6.3% in dollar value, according to the ECB.
“With the decrease in temperature, the plant does not develop well and the productivity per hectare drops,” explains Salazar. Production per hectare went from 45 to 35 bunches, on average.
Bananas develop properly in temperatures ranging from 25°C to 35°C, but due to La Niña there were areas where it reached 18°C.
However, for this year, the prospects are better. Salazar comments that since January there has been more sun and it is even raining more. According to the union’s estimates, exports grew 8% in volume, in the first month of the year.
“Rapid climate changes are being seen. An excess of rain could also affect us because there are floods in the crops”, she points out.
How to counteract these phenomena?
The National Institute for Agricultural Research (Iniap) says that it has worked in three areas with agricultural producers to make their crops more resilient to phenomena such as La Niña.
Among the actions detailed by José Luis Zambrano, Iniap’s director of investigations, are:
- Water collection, through reservoirs, with water from streams or collecting the drops left by the mist.
- Reduced or reduced tillage to zero, that is, avoiding the removal of the soil so that a protective layer is created that prevents water loss and erosion.
- Seeds more resistant to climate change, with natural processes of genetic improvement. The ‘Josefina’ potato, which is produced in Chimborazo, is an example of a product with greater resistance to drought.
