ECLAC slightly reduced its GDP growth projection for Latin America and the Caribbean for 2023 from the 1.3% estimated last December to 1.2%.
The tuna industry was at risk of paralyzing activities during the national strike in June 2022.
The reduction in regional GDP growth calculated by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is mainly explained by ” growing external uncertainties and internal restrictions “.
The United Nations agency, based in Santiago, Chile, warned that the scenario is “complex” because, to the increases in interest rates worldwide, “the financial turbulence observed at the beginning of March was added,” such as the bankruptcy of various banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, in the United States.
“The growth projection for 2023 is subject to downward risks given the possibility that the turbulence in the global banking system may reappear and intensify, which would result in a more persistent tightening of global financial conditions,” ECLAC warned in a statement.
According to the institution, the region once again has “limited” space for fiscal policy this year and “it is not to be expected that a cycle of monetary easing in the region will still be generalized.”
“Inflation in the region shows a downward trend and, although it is expected that the process of interest rate hikes in various countries of the region may be nearing its conclusion, the effects of the restrictive policy on private consumption and investment will be felt more strongly this year,” he added in a statement.
Ecuador, in the middle of the table
Venezuela (5%), Panama (4.6%) and the Dominican Republic (4.6%) will lead economic growth this year, followed by Paraguay (4.2%), the Caribbean islands (3.5%), Guatemala (3.2%), Honduras (3%), Costa Rica (2.7%) and Nicaragua (2.3%), according to the statement.
In the middle of the table are El Salvador, Uruguay, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia, all with an estimated growth of 2%, followed by Cuba and Mexico, both with an increase of 1.5%.
In the tail, but still with positive figures, are Colombia (1.2%) and Brazil (0.8%).
While Chile (-0.3%), Haiti (-0.7%) and Argentina (-2%) are the only ones that will decrease this year, according to the United Nations organization.
The figures of the region
Latin America, the most unequal region in the world and the one most affected by the pandemic, grew 6.9% in 2021, as a rebound after the 6.8% collapse registered in 2020, the biggest recession in 120 years.
The slowdown in the region began in the second half of 2022, which closed with an estimated growth of 3.7%, according to ECLAC, which has not yet provided the final figure.
