In August, four consecutive months of negative monthly inflation were interrupted, although annual deflation decreased its downward trend in one year.
And there are responsible for that. In addition to the lemon, the green and ripe banana, the chicken, the prepared cereals, there is the high-octane gasoline, after the price rise to 2.98 dollars per gallon, after the elimination of the state subsidy.
The incidence of the super in the final Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.029% after an increase in inflation of 5.41% compared to 0.053% of chicken incidence, which rose 8.23% in the month.
After the category of food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport (7 products) was the one that most affected the increase in monthly prices. The survey of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) of August reveals this.
The INEC indicator, result of 25,350 monthly data from a set of 359 products, indicates that monthly inflation closed at 0.27% in August and -0.32 at annual level, which completed 12 consecutive months in negative territory, as a consequence of the deceleration of the consumption of the Ecuadorian homes and of the reduction of the expense and of the investment of the central Government. It is estimated that the reduction in public investment compared to 2017 is 50%.
What happens with chicken is something cyclical, and has to do with the lower offer of this product. The price of balanced feed has not changed for more than a year, according to the supplier companies: the 40-kilogram bag of balanced for birds is kept at 20 dollars.
It is also customary for the banana to rise during the summer period, due to the fact that the production and the weight of the bunch decrease due to the scarcity of water. The large clusters that cost 2 and 3 dollars in winter, now pay $ 4 to $ 5.
The analyst Pablo Lucio Paredes does not believe that inflation will come out of the annual negative ground in which he finds himself. He has said that until 2019 he will see deflation.
The situation influences the income of companies and their possible expansion, which is not positive for the creation of new jobs or investments (except for export products).
We must put the alerts on the growth of 42.6% of the deferred credit in the last two years, because it could indicate that consumers are overextending. And this, according to analyst José Orellana Giler, could affect sales in certain sectors in the next 18 months.
Cities with hikes
In August 2018, the Consumer Price Index stood at 105.08. With this, monthly inflation was 0.27%, compared to the previous month which was -0.004%; while in August 2017 it was 0.01%. In Esmeraldas, Cuenca, Guayaquil, Santo Domingo, Ambato, Quito and Manta, monthly inflation rose. He went down in Loja and Machala.
The basket is paid
The value of the basic family basket was 710.76 dollars in August, while the family income (1.6 recipients) in 720.53 dollars, this implies a coverage of 101.38% of the total cost of that basket. It consists of 75 products likely to be consumed at least once a month by a household of 4 members. (I)