The most recent estimates from the Central Bank of Ecuador confirm the decline of the Ecuadorian economy in 2020. Although the country begins to experience a slight recovery after six months of health emergency , the year will end with negative values .
“We are hardly going to be able to change the path we had in the first seven months of quite strong decline, our forecast in the worst case scenario of 9%,” said Verónica Artola , general manager of the institution. However, it raises some indicators that allow us to forecast that 2021 will be a better year.
The first, the growth of international reserves . The country was bordering on a reserve of $ 2 billion at the end of March and according to the official this time it reaches $ 3.5 billion.
The second, the slight increase in the price of a barrel of oil above $ 40. Although at this point, the official recalled that the General State Budget was built with a value of $ 51.
And the third element that Artola includes as a sign of a recovery in the economy is the inflow of foreign exchange . The head of the Central Bank indicated that $ 1,200 million more than in 2019 are registered for this concept.
However, the economist Ramiro Crespo makes a point about the recovery that the Central Bank envisions for the year 2021: “I believe that growth will be 1.5% more or less, but this is about the end of this year. So anyway, we will continue in an economy with a lower Gross Domestic Product than the one before the pandemic. ”
Crespo highlights the renegotiation of the debt and the agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) within the strategies to face the economic crisis ; although he considers that the recipe should include the strengthening of the private sector.
“A dollar in the hands of the State is not more productive than a dollar in the hands of the productive private sector . We have to create a broader financial sector where investment banks are included , where venture capital investment funds are included , and we have to create an environment that attracts foreign direct investment , that savings come from abroad ”, explained the expert in economic issues.
At the moment the sectors with the best prognosis according to the Central Bank of Ecuador are: Transportation, Commerce, Tourism and Construction .